At the start of the year 2019, Bitcoin seemed to be approaching a season of calm and stability as predicted by a host of crypto analysts. The year 2020 has offered a tumultuous beginning thanks to the raging COVID-19 pandemic that has seen the crypto bleeding last weekend.
Interestingly, even as Bitcoin seems to be headed to the gutter, other altcoins seem to be coping with the market crash.
Today’s statistics indicate that Bitcoin is trading at $6, 852, a figure that’s not too shabby when reflected on the $7,000 target that would save the cryptocurrency.
In fact, it has gone on record that a number of pundits have suggested the premise that $6,900 be considered to be Bitcoin’s crucial level meaning that a drop below this target would dispose the digital asset to a trend reversal.
Quite interestingly, even as experts continue to comment on the fate of Bitcoin’s price and its behavior across investment echelons, Ross Ulbricht (founder of the infamous Silk Road dark web market) has tabled his views.
According to the one-time now-imprisoned dark web mastermind, the Bitcoin price is likely to dip to $1,000 as signaled by the prevailing factors. This rather fascinating perspective was expressed in a tweet posted by Ulbricht (See below) – intimating that a price analysis based on the Elliot Wave Theory indicates that the Bitcoin price is set to take a nosedive to a new $1,200 low.
A Twitter post expressing the Silk Road founder's analysis of the BTC price.
Third Bear Market Could End in June
The Silk Road founder has estimated that the third bear market could end in June 2020 as a further plunge in Bitcoin price is set to be experienced.
An Elliot Wave Impression of the Bitcoin Market Cycle (Source: Medium)
According to Ulbricht, Bitcoin is currently operating in the last stage of its first cycle degree bear market. The second wave (Wave 2) of its lifetime consists of three primary-degree waves, with Wave C as the biggest.
Technically speaking, the downward flow of Wave 2 is difficult to study and fathom although the Silk Road founder acknowledges the 86 percent and 94 percent drawdowns that accompanied the two past bear markets – an aspect that poses significant threat to the already-suffering Bitcoin bulls. Thus, Ulbricht intimates that an expected price dive will drag the Bitcoin price down to the $1,200 mark.
The above estimation provided by Ulbricht follows an understanding of trends that typify historical data on crypto markets considering the difficulty of predicting the time frame of this bear market. Nonetheless, the Silk Road founder does not eliminate the belief that the bear market could spill over to the year 2021. To quote his thoughts:
“An estimation of the scale and duration of Wave 2 is difficult to achieve with precision. There’s no clear limit as far as the extent and timeframe of the wave is concerned.”
Otherwise, Ulbricht also intimated that Bitcoin could challenge this bearish case if its price manages to deliver a forceful upward movement past the $14,000 mark that defined its 2019 peak. However, according to him, this possibility is still a far-fetched dream.
Looking back, at the end of the year 2019, Ulbricht had predicted that Bitcoin’s price would rise to $100,000 this year – a prediction that seems to have missed its mark considering the prevailing circumstances that have seen the crypto drop past the start of Wave 2 in March. Indeed, we are not likely to witness a bullish scenario that will challenge the Bitcoin status quo